Tesla in 2025

The year is 2025 and the last several years seeing Tesla develop as a transformative organization and in its importance to the world and humanity, have been fascinating to witness to say the least. Historically, I’ve always been interested in companies guided by revolutionary thinking and there can be no finer example of such an organization than Tesla. This time frame was explosive for the company, and we saw each of its divisions grow exponentially and surpass even the most optimistic of Wall Street’s projections. Tesla would come to be seen as an organization that offers a unique level of technological depth and expertise across a number of lines including but not limited to space operations, energy and transportation. Musk’s 2016 master plan is coming to fruition, and for those who have followed over the years, watching it develop has been almost as exciting as owning the stock, which now contains a basket of revolutionary and immensely profitable companies.

The perception of Tesla on Wall Street and in the public’s eye has also transformed during these few years, going from one limited in product line diversity with Telsa being the major bottom line contributor, to one that offers breadth across a variety of platforms that now work synergistically together in an ecosystem of usability and profitable. No longer is automotive the concentrated and overwhelming bulk of revenues as it was through 2020, and the other areas are now major contributors to sales and earnings. SpaceX has been purchased and rolled into Space, but not before Musk garners full commitment and business line stability from NASA and the Federal Government. Boring has also long ago become part of transportation.

Elon Musk became the richest man in the world, and all along the way, doubters continued to doubt and scratch their heads as to how his creations kept coming to life. Along the way, short sellers would continue to get their heads handed to them with earnings surprise after surprise from solid business execution across the variety of subsidiaries under the Tesla umbrella. With the Model 3 essentially being Tesla’s iPhone 4 in automotive, it would serve to catapult the company into a manufacturing monster and be a platform driver for future smaller framed vehicles and other advanced concept design. Telsa is the largest employer in the world and has fended off buyout offers from Apple as well as consortium buyout offers from groups of companies who saw the massive ecosystem potential of the Tesla conglomerate. Apple realized too late that Tesla was one company that had everything a company of its size needed with addressable markets large enough to fulfil its needs (the entire transportation industry, outer space, and more).

On the company front Musk realized that in order to truly change the world, he needed to keep Tesla going on his own which he knew he could do better than anyone else, however, he would eventually share and relinquish CEO responsibilities to free up time to develop and create; his love.

The Tesla Umbrella in 2025
1. Tesla Transportation
2. Tesla Energy
3. Tesla Space (SpaceX)

Tesla Transportation saw itself evolve into a manufacturing powerhouse. Not only did the automotive division challenge the industry’ status quo and set it back on its heels, but it got the other automakers to aggressively ramp up their electric vehicle production which most weren’t ready for from a capital deployment standpoint. Compounding matters and overweight in subprime auto loans, the big 3 got crushed again by a new crisis of their own making when the lessons of the 2007-2009 were clearly not learned. Telsa capitalized on this and rendered the dealership model almost irrelevant with its direct to consumer purchasing (ordering over their website). The internet continued to prove itself to be the best distribution method ever devised with the efficiencies that it offered, so it was no wonder that Musk was so quickly able to outflank an industry ripe for disruption and to wit, faster than anyone would have imagined. States like Connecticut, with major budget issues of its own, acquiesced and allowed Tesla to sell direct to consumers. No surprise Michigan, with its Anti Tesla law, was the final holdout to give in but only after Texas. Level 4 and 5 autonomy are prevalent by 2019 and insurance companies begin to frown upon drivers who do not use automation in their vehicles (they ask for proof of this) and charge premiums for those that don’t use it. Humans are beginning to be seen as a danger on the open roads; a solution only technology could solve. Tesla vehicles are being made without steering wheels. Overlapping Tesla model S curve production and planned obsolescence have made it very difficult for other automakers to keep up.

Division History and Updates Over the Years:

Tesla Semi Trucks take the segment by storm. Musk figured out a way to accelerate their purchasing with unique financing plans that allowed the trucking companies to quickly scale up get their new rigs on the road with Telsa only limited by Gigafactory capacity to churn them out. Semi manufacturing and purchase made great ecological sense as semi’s spew twice (or more) of carbon output as a traditional pickup truck in 2017. More importantly it gave the intermodel transportation industry significant profit margin in industries where profits are traditionally slim (see each area below) due to fuel and personnel costs. By the time Musk unveiled the Semi he already had a major backlog of orders on the books from the largest of the trucking companies. There were few stragglers.  Tesla semis would be incredibly profitable for Tesla and mitigate the impact of lower margin Tesla autos like the 3, Y and other coming lines.

Launched much quicker than most expected by 2019, Tesla Model Y directly competes with the Camry, Accord and all of the other best sellers in the mid-sized car and compact SUV market. Each of the major auto companies make their own electric version, but with advanced automation being the key feature where Tesla excels, it is a convincing decision driver for consumers and a great upsell to consumers for Tesla. Like Subaru’s AWD, it is built in and a major differentiator. Now with an automobile affordable by most American’s as a result of Model 3’s success and lessons learned from past models (even with Gov’t subsidies gone), Tesla is an automotive giant all its own and a force to be reckoned with. The major auto manufacturers have long admitted that Tesla’s head start in electric vehicles and automation was an insurmountable learning and growth curve they simply could not overcome with their legacy business models and older ways of thinking. While they have done their best to catch up, Telsa’s first mover advantage and rapid planned obsolescence of its own products allows them a comfortable and sustained lead for years.

Tesla Pickup Trucks were a direct blow to the profitability of the big 3. Musk’s unveiling and press conference saw each of their stocks drop 5-10% in short order. The pickups proved to be tough, fast and capable of hauling way more payload than anything else on the road. They looked sleek and rugged. Sales went through the roof and Tesla pickup trucks brought America’s love affair with their trucks to an entirely new level. Alongside S, X, 3, and Y, pickups rolled out of the side of the gigafactories by the tens of thousands.

Future Subcompact Tesla vehicles would prove extremely popular for the younger generation as well as urban dwellers. Their clean and minimalistic design first featured in the Model 3 would be a great space saver in inner cities. By the time these come out, steering wheels are gone and full autonomy is here to stay. The subcompacts would be a clear choice for leasing your vehicles out to others with Tesla carpooling and ridesharing to others in your area.

The Boring company, now rolled into Tesla Transportation, turned out to be anything but. Created on a whim in a late night Tweet by Musk,  Boring turned out to be a massive revenue generator for Tesla. Exclusive to Tesla vehicles, the tunnels in environmentally conscience Los Angeles, for example, were met with open arms by the city. The LA boring tunnel network would further spur sales of Tesla vehicles and drive the ecosystem, much like Apple’s products perpetuate and reinforce sales of other Apple products. The biggest shock in the first several years of the Boring Company was with New York City. Plagued by breakdowns, delays and outdated infrastructure (much like the utility grid across the country), New York City, the state of NY and the Federal Government joined forces to completely replace and bypass the NYC subway system in its entirety, rather than doing anything proactive with expansion and beyond the normal and routine subway maintenance. NYC’s boring tunnels would move commuters on skates in people pods through the network at significant speeds to their destinations and would be the model for all major cities to come. Musk sought out this challenge by making this major metropolis a priority with the same logic as making Semis Trucks before pickups; if the public can accept the biggest and highest profile city first, others would easily follow. And drawing an analogy with Facebook and Amazon’ deployment of high altitude blimps and satellites as a means to blanket continents like Africa with telephone and internet service or transport and deliver goods where there was no existing infrastructure, Boring’s technology and speed increases over the years would offer a similar leapfrog technology with the transportation and trucking industry.

Hyperloops would come to transform and revolutionize short and long haul commercial transportation as we know it. Cross country shipping is now possible within an hour or two via a network of above and below ground tubes that span the United States and many other countries. Shipping companies pay top dollar to line up their cargo days in advance for space on Telsa’s hyperloop network, alleviating the need for road transportation and the associated staffing issues. Musk single-handedly created a technologically advanced, modern day transcontinental railroad. Shipping hyperloop tunnels have the ability to move packages two stories high and share other pod traffic which move at over 1,000 mph, much quicker or possible than the plans just imagined in just 2017 when municipalities like Chicago expressed interest for very short-haul trips. Rather than build hyperloops resembling how current highways span the USA, hyperloops are designed to terminate at specific locations and then rotate in order to join other tubes to change direction to serve multiple areas of the country. This newest hub and spoke design would not replace, but rather complement the long-haul existing loops that span the country. The uses for hyperloop grew and grew and opened up a new dimension in terrestrial commerce transport.

Musk moves into air transportation and shipping…

Tesla Air Transportation’s biggest hurdle was working with the airlines in getting their air travelers comfortable with their planes flying on batteries vs gas. What if they fail in mid-air? The public’s hangup was you can’t just pull over and recharge the plane’s batteries. Tesla’s technological prowess would extend into the skies but yet at the same time, run counter to his arguments about Boring needing to be underground versus having smaller personal aircraft rule the skies which at one point, he thought, would cause anxiety, safety concerns, and wind turbulence. Musk and team recognize that aircraft are critical to addressing the complete transportation industry and with aircraft solar panel integration once being scoffed at, it now is now considered normal, and the public has become familiar and comfortable enough with it. Solar charging capabilities and the tops of the planes were a natural extension of everything else Tesla had been doing to this point, and all Tesla aircraft had solar very aesthetically built in. Airlines eventually began planning for their next-gen plane development with Tesla integration. It was no surprise to many that early on Boeing expressed little interest in joining forces from a Union perspective and also after placing massive bets on the 787 Dreamliner, along with major updates on their existing line, like the 737, among others. They didn’t envision the importance of getting on board and were surprised at how quickly the technology developed. Acquiescing, Boeing and Airbus would eventually seek Tesla’s counsel on incorporating solar charging technology into their aircraft. Having in flight, seamless charging, would allow airlines quicker on the ground turnaround for follow-up flights where there was no need to fuel up. Catering and cleaning service automation, such as self cleaning toilets and bathrooms would further quicken the pace of aircraft turnarounds. The planes were also significantly more aerodynamic than many planes in the sky. Musks’ expertise in rocketry, science and AI would integrate into planes that can now think on their own and adjust fuel mixtures and other things in-flight, making efficiency recommendations to the pilots in real-time. On the airline side, early adopters like Southwest Air and JetBlue saw their earnings explode as the mix of electric planes into their fleet saw their margins expand far above any of the other major carriers. With the extra cash on hand, the early adopters were able to expand into new routes and take share.

Container ships that once roamed the high seas, spewing tons of pollution, would now operate with deep solar integration as well and with zero emissions. Telsa would make great strides in this area developing cargo ships which are one of the the biggest problems from a carbon emission standpoint. Maersk and others express strong interest and shipping was a major success for Tesla.

Tesla Energy took a route quite unexpected over the last several years. As opposed to being seen as competitive and disruptive, Musk’s vision and team’s communication with the existing energy infrastructure companies was one of collaboration and cooperation. Utility companies, victimized by over-usage, overpopulated areas and outdated infrastructure, saw Tesla as an answer to alleviating major network pain points, which ultimately after implementation, translated into smoother usage and better customer satisfaction. Using Musk’s centralized power grid generation, Telsa would provide power backup potential to utility grids around the world, with nearby solar panels keeping the cells topped off continuously.  

Powerpack farms would aid and complement utility companies which would fully embrace Tesla’s leadership ideas as the thought leader with the best technology solutions to best serve their customers. Rural areas of the world would have powerpack farms that would provide instant electricity to millions where it didn’t exist before. Back in the US, some utility grids were so old, states and municipalities would contract with Tesla to build entirely brand new electric grids and scrap their older infrastructure.

Residential Powerwall capacity would continue to increase exponentially, storing the wares of Tesla’s gorgeous solar roofs, and at night and in cloudy weather, power home electricity needs. Musk also turned the powerwalls themselves into solar units for those that choose not to purchase solar roofs. Powerwalls are now able to be mounted even on roofs themselves much like an air conditioner or HVAC unit and their exteriors are covered with solar cells and the unit links directly into the home and out to Tesla vehicles in the garage. This was an idea that came later as it was a challenge to Musk’s idea of the complete ecosystem (roof, to powerwall to home/car). Powerpacks are also now portable for consumer devices and for other needs.  Solar cells, in general, became ubiquitous, and are incorporated into just about every Tesla product.

Gigafactories continue to pop up around the world. By 2019, Tesla got so good at making gigafactories and internally, them making themselves (the machine that makes the machine), the pace of development increased. Tesla vehicles, powerwalls, powerpacks, and solar tiles are churned out with alarming speed and efficiency. Raw material is shipped literally into the side of the factory, further increasing product margins, lowering overall product ASPs, and increasing economies of scale. Another factor that saw the speed of production of the gigafactories were countries flush with cash who sought to fully fund their own factories for Tesla. With limited capex needed on Tesla’s part, gigafactories were able to be produced much more quickly. Social and sustainability issues would also be a major tailwind for gigafactory production, for example, Britain, Norway, India and the Netherlands, to name a few ‘mandate to have all vehicles be all electric would rapidly accelerate gigafactory’s importance to the world. Major companies would seek to mimic Musk’s model with limited success due to cost and their learning curves being left in the dust. Gigafactories would not only power themselves with their solar collection, but sell back power to countries they operate within creating a power energy ecosystem and feedback loop, while providing further bottom line to Tesla as a whole.

Tesla Space would prove to be the biggest mind boggler of all to the world and address humanity’s unmet need to conquer the wide open frontier of outer space. Musk changed the way that the world viewed and perceived outer space and his vehicles opened up a new dimension for humankind, much in the way the boat did in exploring the new world back on earth. He had the right idea about rocket reusability and the rest of the industry would seek to emulate his model.

The world began to see space as unfilled and available real estate to house many more thousands of satellites than existed in 2017 and Tesla’s mastery of rocket reusability would capitalize on this. Commercial uses of satellites radically expanded once Musk enabled them with a substantially more affordable method to get them into orbit. Companies and industries would benefit from Tesla’s network and enable them to send up several rockets a day, further stuffing Tesla’s coffers and getting it one step closer to Mars and turning the human race into a multi-planetary species.  

Some of these satellites would also contain ships and machines that would allow colonization and mining of the moon. Incredibly rare and powerful minerals and elements like Helium 3 would be collected and in limited gravity environment, lift off and be easily shot back and landed back on earth. Freeport McMoran, Billiton and others, jumped at the opportunity to get into this new avenue of mining and collection.  The moon also would provide a very low cost location for further exploration of space, with vehicles able to be launched with little cost associated with fuel and re-launch. The Falcon rockets are still the bread and butter of the fleet and massive revenue generators for Tesla.

Finally, Mars is a very close reality and coming quickly, with Musk and Tesla having mastered space and the learning curve associated with it, Tesla has an extremely close relationship with NASA and is very much aligned with what needs to be done to reopen space exploration and to get humans to Mars. Falcon Heavy’s lift capabilities are radically better than they were in 2017 and 2018 and despite the losses and difficult lessons learned along the way to this point, it now makes the Saturn V look like one of the first Redstone rockets in terms of reliability and capability. All of Tesla’s knowledge ultimately extends into the soon to be real Interplanetary Transport System (video) and journey to the red planet to make humankind a multi-planetary species.

By 2025, Tesla’s will have shown the world that its greatest accomplishment was through not just the success of its products, but also by its uncanny ability to learn from itself and apply this learning through software and AI across every product line and manufacturing process it owns and touches. This deep integration coupled with an entrepreneurial and creative environment instilled into its company culture contributes to operational efficiencies and the incredible ability to scale itself. Tesla is a true learning organization where despite it’s size, its culture remains incredibly nimble to fend off competition and remain innovative across its business lines. Tesla will be a company to be studied and analyzed for decades to come as one of the most profitable companies in the world alongside Apple, which is in stark contrast to how people felt about it in 2017. Musk’s leadership, vision and creativity would prove them all wrong many times over.

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One Response to Tesla in 2025

  1. Dennis Eisenberg says:

    Well written analysis, easy to read. Your right, Musk is likely underestimated as a visionary.

    If Musk gets the pickup truck version right, it will be difficult for the Big 3 to maintain their profit margins (and stock price). Put me on the all electric 4 wheel drive waiting list for the truck. Just make sure it’s got plenty of easy to use cup holders.

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